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Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Mox Valley Games MRC Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 17.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.5% | -13.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.7% | -10.8 |
| Slimes | 8.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.1% | -4.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +1.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diana | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Neos | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.7 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.7% | -12.7 |
| Wind Overlord | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Waverider Protector | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hidden Enclave | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deep Sea Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |